Only the pdf version was affected, all other data and tables on our website are correct. Contact: Email Niamh McAuley. Release date: 30 September Next release: 11 November Print this Statistical bulletin. Download as PDF. UK gross domestic product GDP is estimated to have increased by 5. This release contains data that are consistent with the UK National Accounts, The Blue Book , which will be released on the 29 October , and, as such, data for all periods within this release are subject to revision in line with the National Accounts Revision Policy ; further detail on these changes is available in the Revisions to GDP section.
The level of GDP is now 3. In output terms, the largest contributors to this increase were from wholesale and retail trade, accommodation and food service activities, education and human health, and social work activities. In Quarter 2 , there were increases in all main components of expenditure, with the largest contribution from household consumption, which contributed 4.
A rise in household spending of 7. GDP estimates for Quarter 2 are subject to more uncertainty than usual as a result of the challenges we faced estimating GDP in the current conditions. This is revised from the first estimate of a rise of 4. Index is referenced to Quarter 4 Oct to Dec In Blue Book a new framework is introduced to improve how we produce volume estimates of GDP for balanced years as part of the supply use process.
This framework includes the implementation of double-deflated industry-level gross value added GVA for the first time. We have also included a package of updates for our methods and data. As such, data for all periods within this release are subject to revision in line with the National Accounts Revision Policy. Further detail on these changes is available in the Revisions to GDP section.
These figures indicate that GDP increased across all three months at 2. Monthly figures for July have also been published, showing that GDP growth slowed to 0. Nominal GDP rose by 3. The pattern of revisions to nominal and real GDP in Quarter 2 reflect improvements to how the Office for National Statistics ONS measures non-market output, specifically education and health.
The implied GDP deflator represents the broadest measure of inflation in the domestic economy, reflecting changes in the price of all goods and services that comprise GDP. The implied deflator fell by 2. The revision is mainly because of changes in government consumption expenditure on education and health. Several countries have published estimates of GDP for Quarter 2 The UK experienced the largest increase in real GDP of these countries in Quarter 2 , in part reflecting the timing of the tightening and easing of public health restrictions in the first half of this year.
Of the other countries, Italy and Spain had the next largest volume increases in Quarter 2 However, these two countries are the furthest away from their pre-pandemic levels of GDP. The US is the only economy to have recovered to above pre-pandemic levels 0. Recent analysis highlights the challenges of making international comparisons of GDP at this time and suggests it may be useful to compare nominal and real estimates of GDP, as well as estimates excluding government expenditure. Our initial international engagement has shown differences between National Statistical Institutes NSIs in how the challenges of non-market output have been addressed, particularly over the pandemic period, where many, including the ONS, have applied specific additional adjustments to account for changes in the delivery of public services.
This means there are some challenges around international comparability at this stage. Data as at 21 September There was an increase in services output of 6. Health and social work contributed 0. This revision is because of updated non-coronavirus health activity components.
There is more information on health estimates in Quarter 2 in Section 4: Expenditure. Services output is now 2. Wholesale and retail trade, accommodation and food service activities, education, and heath provided the largest quarterly contributions to services output growth. Accommodation and food services increased by These increases reflected the reopening of indoor hospitality and non-essential retail, and Euro Other services, which include arts, entertainment and recreation, and other personal activities such as hairdressing, saw a rise of Overall, consumer-facing services increased by There was a There is more information on education estimates in Quarter 2 in Section 4: Expenditure , including revisions to these components.
Figure 3 shows the level of output of the services industries relative to its pre-pandemic levels, capturing the impact of revisions. It highlights that the relative industry-level effects are broadly unchanged, although there have been updated data and improvements to how we estimate health output see Section 4. Arts, entertainment and recreation and other services activities are now slightly stronger because of the addition of value-added tax VAT data for Quarter 4 Oct to Dec and Quarter 1 Jan to Mar for the first time.
Figure 3: The services sector in Quarter 2 Apr to June is now a revised 2. Production output rose by 1. The increase in production output in Quarter 2 was mainly driven by an unrevised 1. The increase in manufacturing output was driven by food products, beverages and tobacco, and machinery and equipment. There was a fall in the output of the manufacture of transport equipment, which was particularly impacted by microchips shortages.
The production of motor vehicles fell by Output in the manufacture of motor vehicles sub-industry is now Elsewhere in production, there was a contraction of This reflected the planned temporary closures for maintenance of oil field production sites throughout the quarter. Figure 4 shows the level of output of the production industries relative to their pre-pandemic levels.
There have been some upward revisions in the energy and water supply industries, offset by a downward revision to mining and quarrying output. Figure 4: The production sector in Quarter 2 Apr to June is now a revised 2. Download this chart Figure 4: The production sector in Quarter 2 Apr to June is now a revised 2. Construction output increased by a revised 3. The largest contributions to construction output growth in Quarter 2 were from infrastructure, new work, and repair and maintenance.
There was weaker construction output across the latter two months of the quarter as some businesses reported limited availability of certain construction products, most notably timber, steel, cement and tiles. However, there was still a rise in output compared with Quarter 1 Jan to Mar , because of a low base of construction output in the first quarter. The latest quarter saw small positive revision of 0. In Quarter 2 Apr to June , there were increases in all the main components of expenditure, with the largest contribution from the 7.
Following revisions to their first estimates, all of the main components of expenditure show broadly the same cumulative position relative to their pre-pandemic levels Figure 5. Figure 5: All the components of expenditure show broadly the same cumulative position relative to their pre-pandemic levels as previously estimated Percentage change, breakdown of the main expenditure components, Quarter 4 Oct to Dec to Quarter 2 Apr to June Source: Office for National Statistics — GDP quarterly national accounts Notes: Chart shows the percentage change in the production sector in Quarter 2 Apr to June compared with Quarter 4 Oct to Dec The chart for presentation purposes excludes data on final consumption expenditure of Non-profit institutions serving households; and under gross capital formation: changes in inventories; and acquisitions less disposable of assets.
Download this chart Figure 5: All the components of expenditure show broadly the same cumulative position relative to their pre-pandemic levels as previously estimated Image. In Quarter 2 , household consumption increased by 7. Household consumption is now 6. The largest contributions in Quarter 2 were from spending on restaurants and hotels and transport, which all performed strongly with the reopening of the economy Figure 6.
This was partly offset by a fall in food and drink consumption expenditure, which may be because of the strong rise in spending on restaurants and hotels. Previous analysis from the Retail Sales Index showed feedback from retailers suggesting that in-store food sales were negatively affected in May by both the reopening of all retail sectors and the relaxation of hospitality restrictions.
Components contribution may not sum to total because of rounding. Download this chart Figure 6: Spending on restaurants and hotels, and transport were the main contributors to growth in household consumption in Quarter 2 Apr to June Image.
In Quarter 2 , government consumption rose by 8. The quarterly rise was driven by increases in health and education. The consumption of education services increased by This reflects an increase in school attendance in all months across the quarter as schools reopened.
This release includes revisions to the adjustment introduced to education output last year to account for remote schooling. The first part consists of incorporating new data collected by the Department for Education on in-school attendance rates by school type for England from September onwards. The second revises the assumption made for absences where pupils do not attend either in-school or remote learning, to incorporate school type and nation-specific data from before the pandemic, replacing an average assumption for all school types.
The third and largest factor involves an improvement to the application of the remote learning full-time equivalency factor, which is calculated separately for primary and secondary schools, and is now applied on an age-specific basis for academies, special schools and publicly-funded places in independent pre-schools. The main impact of these improvements is to reduce the level of education output in Quarter 2 Apr to June and Quarter 1 , the two periods where there was a general policy of school closures.
This then has an impact on the growth rates into Quarter 3 July to Sep and Quarter 2 The consumption of health services increased by We have also improved how we estimate this type of non-market output, incorporating new cost-weighted activity indicators. For further information, please refer to the accompanying article. Alongside this improvement, the non-COVID health activity data has seen upwards revisions because of the revised source data, as well as a review of balancing adjustments, which were applied in our first estimate to achieve consistency with monthly gross domestic product GDP.
In Quarter 2 , gross fixed capital formation rose by 0. This upward revision was mainly driven by business investment which increased by 4.
Business investment is still Figure 7: Business investment is now Download this chart Figure 7: Business investment is now Manufacturing industries contributed the most to this change in inventories, particularly in materials stored and fuels. Comments from companies noted an increase of the cost of materials with some companies also increasing stocks to hedge the supply chain problems and in readiness for the end of lockdowns and the economy opening up fully.
Note that alignment and balancing adjustments are typically applied to the inventories component to help balance the different approaches to GDP. More detail can be found in Section Quality and methodology.
Therefore, the unadjusted data can provide a better understanding of the change in the inventory position of businesses in the whole economy. Table 2: Change in inventories, including and excluding balancing and alignment adjustments UK, Quarter 1 Jan to Mar to Quarter 2 Apr to June Change in Inventories Of which alignment Of which balancing Change in Inventories excluding alignment and balancing Q1 Current price 3, Chained volume measure 2, Q2 Current price -4, -3, Chained volume measure -7, -2, Q3 Current price -6, Chained volume measure -4, Q4 Current price 2, 2, Chained volume measure 2, 3, Q1 Current price 5, 2, 2, Chained volume measure 4, 2, 1, Q2 Current price 4, 2, 1, Chained volume measure 2, 2, 96 Download this table Table 2: Change in inventories, including and excluding balancing and alignment adjustments.
The latest figures show a further rebound in goods trade, while services trade remained subdued. Some of the increase in trade flows in the second quarter is likely to reflect the recovery following the end of the transition period EU Exit and the easing of COVID pandemic restrictions earlier in the year. In volume terms, exports of goods and services increased by 6. This revision is driven by updated data in both goods and services, in particular from the International Trade in Services Survey.
This quarterly increase was driven by a rise of Exports of services fell by 1. Imports of goods and services rose by 2. This was driven by a 2. There was a similar pattern in the flows of imports as seen in exports. Nominal gross domestic product GDP rose by 3. This increase in nominal GDP was driven by increases in taxes less subsidies and compensation of employees.
Figure 9: Nominal GDP increased by a revised 3. Total compensation of employees rose by 1. Skip to main content. Tags Joe Biden. The 'On the Money' Newsletter: Today's daily digest and what's expected to break tomorrow.
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